Every storm runs out of rain

Here's a question I've been thinking about...

I recently read an article in the Phoenix New Times: “Phoenix home prices have outpaced inflation by 177%, study finds.” Reading that as a Realtor is a bit of a gut punch. But that's the emotional reaction to hard facts. And facts are facts. Fifteen years ago, according to the article, Phoenix's median home price was about $109,000. Had home prices simply tracked nationwide inflation since then, that number would be around $170,000 today. Instead, the median Phoenix home price in January was $445,000. Ouch.

So how do you deal with that kind of information as an agent trying to convince a buyer that now is a good time to buy? Or a seller that they should list their home and give up their 3% interest rate? Simple answer: perspective.

At Keller Williams' Mega Camp a few weeks ago, Jason Abrams made a point that has been sitting in my head. He asked a room full of Realtors how many would go back to 2006 and buy every piece of real estate they could. Hands everywhere. Of course we would. Except think about what 2006 actually felt like while people were living through it. Affordability was strained. Mortgage rates were around levels buyers complain about today. Trouble was beginning to show in subprime lending. And we, sitting comfortably 20 years later, know what came next. The housing crash. The Great Recession. Foreclosures. Short sales. And still, knowing all of that, we'd happily go back and buy.

That is perspective.

Time IN the market generally beats trying to TIME the market. To further the point, I heard an amazing quote the other day: “Every storm runs out of rain!” How true this is! Markets go up and down, presidents come and go, life moves on. It cannot rain forever. And the inverse is also true: it can't always be sunny skies. Arizona real estate has had a pretty good run over the last 15 years. Should that make you freeze and assume the sky is falling? NO. Refer back to Jason Abrams' point: spend enough time in the real estate world and today's impossible market may look very different in hindsight. Buy when you need to buy, sell when you need to sell. I have a feeling that on your deathbed you aren't going to be thinking about the damn 3% interest rate you “left behind.” Hopefully, you'll be thinking about the memories you made in the homes you shared with the people you loved.

But my Sunday Morning Broker Thoughts™ isn't a sales seminar. It is for you, the agent.

This advice goes to your career as well. You will have down years. You will have up years. The highs can be HIGH and the lows, well, they suck, not gonna lie to you. This is why I have been harping on you to save for a rainy day and build a career foundation that can hold the roof down and the rain out. But the goal isn't to avoid the storm. It's to NOT GIVE UP when you're standing in it. IMHO, there is no place in our industry for what I like to call “fair-weather Realtors.” You know the kind. They get licensed, discover this is hard and disappear. Or they enter when the market is on fire, think they're hot shit, and then the market shifts. Suddenly they discover there was quicksand underneath their foundation all along. They leave, only to rinse and repeat when the market gets hot again. That isn't good for our industry writ large, and it certainly isn't good for them. You are better than that. You have the tools you need, or you know where to get them. You, my friend, have to build the house. You don't get to enjoy the shelter until you've done the work. You're going to get sunburned. You're going to bang your finger with a hammer. You're going to be exhausted, frustrated and occasionally wonder WTF you are doing. But eventually you move in. You make it yours. You build a life inside it. And years later, you look back at the building phase and realize: It was hard. And it was worth it.

Markets shift. Careers shift. Life shifts. Sometimes you're standing in sunshine. Sometimes you're soaking wet wondering why the hell you didn't bring an umbrella.

But every storm runs out of rain.

The question isn't whether you'll encounter the storm. It's whether you've built something strong enough to still be standing when the sun comes back out. Twenty years from now, I have a feeling you'll look back at this market very differently than you do today. And you might just raise your hand to do it all over again.

So to answer the question I have been thinking about… Is what you've built strong enough for the next storm?

Nicholas Yale

Designated Broker/Owner | Brokers Hub Realty